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Title: Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab.
Authors: Custodio, A
Carmona-Bayonas, A
Jiménez-Fonseca, P
Sánchez, M L
Viudez, A
Hernández, R
Cano, J M
Echavarria, I
Pericay, C
Mangas, M
Visa, L
Buxo, E
García, T
Rodríguez Palomo, A
Álvarez Manceñido, F
Lacalle, A
Macias, I
Azkarate, A
Ramchandani, A
Fernández Montes, A
López, C
Longo, F
Sánchez Bayona, R
Limón, M L
Díaz-Serrano, A
Hurtado, A
Madero, R
Gómez, C
Gallego, J
metadata.dc.subject.mesh: Adenocarcinoma
Aged, 80 and over
Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols
Bone Neoplasms
Esophageal Neoplasms
Esophagogastric Junction
Health Status
Lymphocyte Count
Middle Aged
Neoplasm Grading
Receptor, ErbB-2
Stomach Neoplasms
Survival Rate
Tumor Burden
White People
Young Adult
Issue Date: 2-May-2017
Abstract: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5-6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5-10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8-16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design.
metadata.dc.identifier.doi: 10.1038/bjc.2017.122
Appears in Collections:Producción 2020

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