Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz

Abstract

During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.